Duterte lead over Robredo narrows in latest OCTA poll

By Erika Mae P. Sinaking, Reporter

VICE-PRESIDENT (VP) Sara Duterte-Carpio maintained her lead over Maria Leonor “Leni” G. Robredo in a hypothetical 2028 presidential race, but the gap between the two continued to narrow in the third quarter, according to an OCTA Research survey released on Wednesday.

The survey, conducted from Sept. 28 to Oct. 4, showed 40% of respondents would vote for Ms. Duterte if the election were held during the survey period, compared with 33% for Ms. Robredo. Twenty-six percent were undecided or chose neither candidate, while 1% refused to answer.

The seven-point lead was Ms. Duterte’s smallest advantage over Ms. Robredo in three survey rounds this year and remained outside the poll’s ±3-percentage-point margin of error.

Support for Ms. Duterte slipped to 40% in the third quarter from 43% in the second quarter and 46% in the first quarter. Ms. Robredo’s support was steadier at 35%, 34%, and 33%, respectively.

The gap narrowed from 11 percentage points in the first quarter to 9 points in the second before reaching 7 points in the latest survey.

“The three-wave figures may suggest some softening in VP Duterte’s numbers and some growth in the uncommitted bloc; further waves would be needed to determine whether this reflects a sustained pattern,” OCTA said in a statement.

The pollster said the narrowing race appeared to be driven more by falling support for Ms. Duterte than gains for Ms. Robredo.

“This suggests that voters moving away from VP Duterte are holding back from a choice rather than shifting to Mayor Robredo,” it said.

Ms. Robredo led in Metro Manila, with 39% support against Ms. Duterte’s 32%, and for the rest of Luzon, where she posted 49% support compared with 24% for the Vice-President.

Ms. Duterte retained commanding leads in the Visayas, 46% versus 27%, and in Mindanao, where she garnered 71% support against 2% for Ms. Robredo.

Across income groups, Ms. Robredo led among Class ABC respondents, 40% versus 32%. Ms. Duterte led among Class D respondents, the country’s largest socioeconomic segment, with 41% support against 31% for Ms. Robredo.

Among Class E respondents, Ms. Robredo gained 11 percentage points from the previous quarter to reach 42%, statistically tied with Ms. Duterte’s 41%.

Ms. Duterte posted her strongest numbers in rural areas, where she led 47% to 25%, and among male respondents, where she polled 45% against Ms. Robredo’s 28%.

Ms. Robredo held narrow leads in urban areas and among female respondents, registering 38% support versus 35% for Ms. Duterte in both segments.

Ms. Duterte led among respondents younger than 45, while Ms. Robredo held slim advantages among those aged 45 and above. Younger voters also recorded the highest levels of indecision, with 35% of respondents aged 18 to 24 and 34% of those aged 25 to 34 choosing neither candidate.

The survey was conducted through face-to-face interviews with 1,200 adult respondents and carried an error margin of ±3 points at a 95% confidence level.

The polling period coincided with the Senate impeachment trial of Ms. Duterte, which opened in July. On Oct. 13, prosecutors withdrew three of the four articles of impeachment, leaving only the charge involving unexplained wealth. That development was not reflected in the survey results.