Very strong El Niño threatens farm output, water supply nationwide

By Pexcel John Bacon, Reporter

A VERY strong El Niño has developed in the tropical Pacific and is expected to peak before the end of 2026, raising the risk of prolonged dry spells, drought and warmer-than-normal temperatures across much of the Philippines, the state weather bureau said on Wednesday.

“A very strong El Niño is present in the tropical Pacific,” Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) Climate Monitoring and Prediction Section chief Ana Liza S. Solis told a House of Representatives Agriculture Committee hearing.

“Most climate models predict that the ongoing El Niño will persist until the first quarter of 2027, with its peak expected before the end of 2026,” she added.

Sea surface temperature anomalies in the tropical Pacific averaged about 2.5°C from August to October, exceeding the 2-degree threshold used to classify a very strong El Niño, Ms. Solis told reporters after the hearing.

As of Oct. 31, five provinces were experiencing meteorological drought, while 11 provinces and highly urbanized cities were under dry-spell conditions and another 10 provinces were experiencing dry conditions, she said.

Meteorological drought is the earliest stage of drought and occurs when an area receives significantly less rainfall than normal over a prolonged period.

PAGASA expects the number of provinces experiencing meteorological drought to rise to 26 by December, 48 by January, 68 by February and 87 by March 2027.

Ms. Solis said the projected drought conditions do not mean affected areas would receive no rainfall.

“It does not mean that there is no rain,” she told lawmakers in Filipino. “The rain has just decreased.”

PAGASA’s climate outlook for November 2026 to April 2027 points to below-normal to way-below-normal rainfall across much of the country.

The prolonged dry conditions could eventually lead to agricultural and hydrological drought, affecting crop production and water resources, Ms. Solis said.

She added that daytime temperatures could remain above normal despite the onset of the northeast monsoon.

“Because of the interaction with this very strong El Niño, it is also possible that we are experiencing slightly warmer temperatures, especially during the daytime,” she told reporters.

PAGASA also projected that one or two tropical cyclones could still enter or cross the Philippine landmass in November and December despite the ongoing El Niño.

The agency is set to issue El Niño Advisory No. 6 containing updated assessments and impact forecasts.

FARM PREPARATIONS
During the same hearing, the Department of Agriculture (DA) said it was preparing interventions to cushion the impact of El Niño on farmers and food production.

Agriculture Assistant Secretary U-Nichols A. Manalo said the agency was coordinating with local governments and farmer groups to identify areas requiring support and to roll out advisories. “We have farmer guidance, all provinces have it,” he said.

Mr. Manalo said the agency is also seeking additional funds for cloud-seeding operations.

Agricultural damage from El Niño had reached P8.5 billion as of Oct. 21, with corn accounting for almost P5 billion of the losses, followed by rice, he said.

The Agriculture department has provided P11.34 billion in assistance, including indemnification for affected farmers.

Samahang Industriya ng Agrikultura Executive Director Jayson H. Cainglet warned that the Philippines’ reliance on food imports could heighten risks if El Niño reduces harvests in major exporting countries.

“While the rest of the world was preparing for El Niño, we were preparing to import more,” he told the hearing in mixed English and Filipino.

Mr. Cainglet said the country could face supply pressures if exporting countries retain more of their production for domestic consumption and reserves.

He urged the government to prioritize measures that would boost local food production rather than relying primarily on imports to address supply and price concerns.

“We have destroyed our capacity to produce our food,” he said.