Cost-of-living crisis may not spur political change

By Francessca S. Abalos

RISING prices may be creating conditions for broader public dissatisfaction with the government, but economic hardship alone is unlikely to produce political change without a credible opposition platform and stronger coalition-building, analysts said.

“My sense is that it’s very possible that Filipinos will spontaneously rise up against this kind of intolerable rise in prices that makes the cost of living very high,” former Akbayan Party-list Rep. Walden F. Bello told BusinessWorld via Messenger video call.

Mr. Bello said many Filipinos face growing uncertainty as the prices of basic goods continue to rise, creating an environment in which demands for change could gain traction.

Philippine inflation accelerated to 7.8% in October, the highest in four years, while inflation for housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels reached 9.3%.

Mr. Bello said many households are increasingly concerned about day-to-day survival and the erosion of purchasing power.

While he acknowledged legislative efforts to address rising prices, he said these would likely have limited impact because the Executive branch remains focused on cash assistance programs.

Filipinos want to see broader measures that address the root causes of rising living costs rather than relying solely on financial aid, he added.

However, Jose Enrique “Sonny” A. Africa, executive director of IBON Foundation, said severe economic conditions do not automatically translate into public mobilization or electoral reform.

“The Philippines is not lacking for coherent political challenges to the prevailing economic order and the relentless attacks on activists and mass-based organizations,” he said via Viber. “Heightening use of repressive political laws to narrow civic space are a testament to this.”

He said political dynasties, patronage networks, weak political parties and the influence of large business interests continue to shape electoral outcomes and blunt opposition efforts.

Mr. Africa said opposition groups should do more than criticize corruption or economic mismanagement.

Instead, they should explain why poverty and inequality persist despite decades of economic reforms.

“The Philippine opposition must avoid presenting itself as a more competent manager of the same retrogressive economic policies,” he said.

Mr. Africa said a credible alternative would require challenging policies that have contributed to low wages, import dependence, weak agriculture, limited industrial development and wealth concentration.

Analysts have partly attributed Democratic gains in the recent US midterm elections to voter frustration over living costs and economic insecurity.

But Mr. Africa said the US experience also serves as a warning.

He noted that previous Democratic administrations supported policies that contributed to economic inequality by favoring corporate interests and financial liberalization.

Mr. Bello likewise pointed to foreign policy considerations, noting that the administration of former US President Joseph R. Biden maintained strong alliances in the Pacific region and adopted a tougher position toward China.

He warned that opposition forces in the Philippines could not assume economic frustrations would automatically translate into support for progressive candidates.

Mr. Bello said competing political groups, including supporters of Vice-President Sara Duterte-Carpio, could also capitalize on public dissatisfaction if they move more quickly to address economic concerns.

As a result, he said opposition groups should work together to develop more interventionist economic programs that directly address inflation, wages and living costs.

The Philippines has a chance to turn things around economically and politically, Mr. Bello said. “You now have a situation whereby you can change people’s perception if you work at it, and that’s what we’ve seen happening in the US.”